Unemployment Rate Dips to 4.1 Percent as Employers Add 245,000 Jobs
October 4, 2024 – Employment rose by 254,000 in September as the U.S. unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.1 percent, according to the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. The number of unemployed persons was 6.8 million in September. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, healthcare, government, social assistance, and construction.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (3.7 percent) decreased in September. The jobless rates for adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (14.3 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (4.1 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month. The number of people jobless less than five weeks decreased by 322,000 to 2.1 million in September.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 1.6 million. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier. In September, the long-term unemployed accounted for 23.7 percent of all unemployed people. In September, the labor force participation rate was 62.7 percent for the third consecutive month, and the employment-population ratio was little changed at 60.2 percent. Both measures changed little over the year.
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 million in September. This measure is up from 4.1 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.7 million, changed little in September. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the four weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
The September employment report shows “a truly monster jobs number,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds LLC. “The economic expansion remains on course for now,” he wrote in commentary issued Friday. “The outlook for the economy in the months ahead is quite favorable according to the September jobs report. The economy could end the year on a high note after weathering the growth and employment markets scare a couple of months ago.”
Earlier this week, data from ADP showed the private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, above economists’ estimates for 125,000 and significantly higher than the 99,000 seen in August. This marked the end of a five-month decline in private-sector job additions.
Related: More Than Half of U.S. Companies Anticipate Adding New Positions in the Second Half of 2024
“This is a pretty healthy, widespread rebound,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “And probably unexpected by many people who thought the job market was on a downward slide. This month, of course, gives pause to those kinds of assessments. Hiring is still solid.”
Where Job Growth Occurred
- Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 69,000 in September, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months.
Global Recruitment Outlook Steady for the Fourth Quarter Despite Year-Over-Year Decline
Global hiring intentions are holding steady for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 25 percent, though outlooks remain weaker compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. The survey, which gathered data from over 40,000 employers across 42 countries between July 1-31, reveals that while the NEO has increased by three percent from the previous quarter, it represents a five decline compared to the same period last year. This year-over-year decrease indicates that economic uncertainties continue to impact hiring plans, albeit with signs of quarter-over-quarter improvement.
“The global labor market is holding steady as we move into the fourth quarter, with relatively low unemployment and layoff activity in many countries,” said Jonas Prising, chairman and CEO of ManpowerGroup. “While the gradual quarter-over-quarter improvement shows employers are cautiously optimistic about hiring, the drop from a year ago suggests employers remain prudent in the midst of uncertainty. The continued strong outlook in the IT sector is driving demand for tech talent, especially with AI top of mind for businesses across every industry. Now is the time to prioritize retaining and attracting workers with specialized, flexible skills, and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements.”
- Healthcare added 45,000 jobs in September, below the average monthly gain of 57,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in home healthcare services (+13,000), hospitals (+12,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).
- Employment in government continued its upward trend in September (+31,000). Government had an average monthly gain of 45,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in local government (+16,000) and state government (+13,000).
- Employment in social assistance increased by 27,000 in September, primarily in individual and family services (+21,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 21,000 jobs per month.
- Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+25,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+19,000). Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 17,000 jobs.
- Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services.
Related: Hiring Confidence Slows as Employers Steer Economic Headwinds
Contributed by Scott A. Scanlon, Editor-in-Chief and Dale M. Zupsansky, Executive Editor – Hunt Scanlon Media