Hiring Confidence Slows as Employers Steer Economic Headwinds
March 13, 2024 – Employer hiring intentions continue to moderate for the second quarter of 2024, according to the lates ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. The research is based on data collected from more than 40,000 employers in 41 countries. Used internationally as a bellwether of labor market trends, the Net Employment Outlook (NEO) — calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who anticipate reductions to staffing levels from those who plan to hire — now stands at 22 percent. Global outlooks have weakened by four percent since the previous quarter and are down two percent when compared to the same period last year.
“After years of the post-pandemic economy clicking along at breakneck speed, a cooldown was inevitable,” said Jonas Prising, chairman and CEO of ManpowerGroup. “Still, demand remains strong for skilled talent. Given the global talent shortage, we expect hiring managers to get creative in this climate, whether it’s upskilling current staff or through more targeted recruitment, as businesses gauge conditions over the coming months.”
With stable outlooks across all regions, employers in North America (31 percent) reported the strongest hiring intentions, followed by The Asia-Pacific (27 percent), South and Central Americas (both at 19 percent) and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (each at 15 percent).
Hiring expectations remain the lowest in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (15 percent), decreasing by six percent since the first quarter of 2024 and four percent year over year. Outlooks vary across the region with employers most keen to hire in The Netherlands (32 percent), South Africa (29 percent) and Switzerland (29 percent). The weakest outlooks are in Romania (- two percent) and Israel (- one percent) The strongest hiring intentions globally for the consumer goods and services industry are reported by employers in Switzerland (41 percent); healthcare and life sciences in South Africa (45 percent); and transport and logistics, as well as automotive, in The Netherlands (44 percent).
Hiring managers across The Asia-Pacific anticipate the second strongest regional outlook (27 percent), a decline from the previous quarter of three percent but unchanged year over year. India (36 percent) and China (32 percent) continue to report the strongest outlooks in the region. The most cautious outlooks were reported by employers in Japan (11 percent) and Taiwan (12 percent). The strongest outlooks globally for the communication services industry sector are reported by employers in Hong Kong (60 percent) and energy and utilities in China (37 percent).
Related: Unemployment Rate Rises to 3.9 Percent in February
Employers from all 12 countries surveyed across North, Central, and South Americas reported positive employment outlooks for the second quarter, though hiring intentions have decreased in 11 countries quarter over quarter and in 10 countries compared to this time last year. Employers in the U.S. (34 percent) and Costa Rica (32 percent) reported the strongest hiring intentions across the regions for Q2. Globally, the strongest outlooks for the financial and real estate (+50 percent) and information technology (51 percent) industry verticals are reported by employers in the U.S., whereas industrials and materials (43 percent) leads in Costa Rica.
By Industry
Seventy-three percent of communication services organizations report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for communications services employers is 16 percent. This is a decreased of 14 percent from the previous quarter and the same period last year.
Recruiting Firms Continue to Focus on Winning New Business in 2024
In the midst of a tumultuous year and uncertain global economy, the recruiting industry in 2023 focused on maintaining revenue and margin in the face of declining job requisitions and slower conversions. As a result of these challenges, firms seem to have stalled in their digital transformation journey, according to a new report from Bullhorn. In 2020 only 25 percent of firms had a digital transformation strategy, but that rose to 84 percent by 2022. And by 2023, 29 percent were in the advanced stages of digital transformation. This year, for the first time, Bullhorn found that progress slowed, with only 73 percent having made progress on digital transformation.
A majority (76 percent) of consumer goods and services employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for consumer goods and services employers is 18 percent. This figure declined four percent from the previous quarter and is down one percent versus for Q2 of last year.
Seventy-one percent of energy and utilities employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for energy and utilities employers is 18 percent. This number decreased eight percent from the previous quarter and is flat when compared to last year.
The ManpowerGroup report found that 72 percent of financials and real estate employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for financials and real estate employers is 29 percent. This figure decreased four percent from the previous quarter and is flat when compared to the same period last year.
Related: Executive Hiring Trends Reshaping 2024
A majority (77 percent) of healthcare and life sciences employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for healthcare and life science employers is 26 percent. This is a decrease one percent from the previous quarter but improved one percent compared to a year ago.
The ManpowerGroup report also found that 75 percent of industrials and materials employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for industrials and materials employers is 21 percent. This figure declined five percent from the previous quarter and is down one percent versus the same period in the previous year.
A majority (76 percent) of IT employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for IT employers is 34. This figure decreased one percent from the previous quarter and is flat when compared to the same period last year.
Seventy-six percent of transport, logistics and automotive employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for transport, logistics and automotive employers is 16 percent. This is a decline of nine percent from the previous quarter and is down 10 percent versus the same period last year.
Additional Findings
The ManpowerGroup report also found that 46 percent of employers say they are on track to reach their gender equity targets. The report also found that employers expect most of the progress on gender equality to happen in the next two years. However, 38 percent of employers expect gender equality to be fully achieved in their organization; this is compared to 24 percent of organizations where gender equality is already fully achieved.
The majority of employers, 61 percent, said their organization continues to invest in and grow their diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging programs and initiatives. In addition, 37 percent of companies say that flexible working has helped them to retain talent and expand their candidate pool to be more diverse.
Related: Keys to Finding Top Senior Talent in 2024
Contributed by Scott A. Scanlon, Editor-in-Chief; Dale M. Zupsansky, Executive Editor; Lily Fauver, Senior Editor – Hunt Scanlon Media
