Global Recruitment Outlook Steady for the Fourth Quarter Despite Year-Over-Year Decline

September 17, 2024 – Global hiring intentions are holding steady for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 25 percent, though outlooks remain weaker compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. The survey, which gathered data from over 40,000 employers across 42 countries between July 1-31, reveals that while the NEO has increased by three percent from the previous quarter, it represents a five decline compared to the same period last year. This year-over-year decrease indicates that economic uncertainties continue to impact hiring plans, albeit with signs of quarter-over-quarter improvement.

“The global labor market is holding steady as we move into the fourth quarter, with relatively low unemployment and layoff activity in many countries,” said Jonas Prising, chairman and CEO of ManpowerGroup. “While the gradual quarter-over-quarter improvement shows employers are cautiously optimistic about hiring, the drop from a year ago suggests employers remain prudent in the midst of uncertainty. The continued strong outlook in the IT sector is driving demand for tech talent, especially with AI top of mind for businesses across every industry. Now is the time to prioritize retaining and attracting workers with specialized, flexible skills, and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements.”

Used internationally as a bellwether of labor market trends, the NEO is calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who anticipate reductions in staffing levels from those who plan to hire.

Global Hiring Plans by Region

Employers across North, Central, and South America reported the strongest regional outlook for Q4 (29 percent), with hiring intentions improving three percent quarter-over-quarter but declining five percent from the same period last year. Employers in Costa Rica (36 percent), the U.S. (34 percent), and Brazil (32 percent) reported the strongest hiring intentions across the regions for Q4. The strongest Outlook globally for the consumer goods & services (56 percent) industry vertical is reported by employers in Guatemala, and both information technology (53 percent) and industrials & materials (43 percent) in Costa Rica.

Related: Unemployment Remains Little Changed in August

Hiring expectations remain the lowest in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (21 percent), but strengthened by two percent since the third quarter of 2024 and weakened three percent year-over-year. Outlooks vary across the region with employers most keen to hire in South Africa (32 percent), Switzerland (32 percent), Ireland (30 percent) and The Netherlands (30 percent). The weakest outlooks are in Israel (eight percent) and the Czech Republic (11 percent). The strongest outlook globally for the healthcare & life sciences (62 percent) industry vertical was reported by employers in Belgium, Energy & Utilities (55 percent) in South Africa, communication services (50 percent) in Greece, and transport, logistics, and automotive (49 percent) in Slovakia.

Hiring managers across the Asia-Pacific countries anticipate the second strongest regional outlook (27 percent), an increase from the previous quarter (+ four percent) but decreased when compared to the same time last year (- five percent). India (37 percent), Singapore (29 percent), and China (27 percent) continue to report the strongest outlooks in the region. The most cautious outlooks were reported by employers in Hong Kong (eight percent). The strongest outlook globally for the financials & real estate (64 percent) industry vertical was reported by employers in Singapore.

Outlooks by Industry Vertical

The ManpowerGroup report found that a majority (73 percent) of communication services organizations report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for the communications services industry stands at 16 percent. This figure increased five percent from the previous quarter and decreased 15 percent when compared to the same period last year.

Related: How to Get Ahead in the Hiring Waiting Game

A majority (76 percent) of consumer goods and services employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for consumer goods and services employers is 25 percent. ManpowerGroup notes that this figure increased three percent from the previous quarter and remains unchanged year-over-year.

The ManpowerGroup survey also found that a majority (71 percent) of energy and utilities employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for energy and utilities employers is eight percent. This figure decreased one percent from the previous quarter and 23 percent when compared to the same period last year.

Most (72 percent) of financials and real estate employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for financials and real estate employers is 32 percent. ManpowerGroup explains that this figure increased five percent from the previous quarter but decreased one percent when compared to the same period last year.

More Than Half of U.S. Companies Anticipate Adding New Positions in the Second Half of 2024

Fifty-two percent of companies in the United States plan to add new permanent positions in the second half of the year, according to new research from talent solutions and business consulting firm Robert Half. Another 43 percent plan to fill for vacated positions, and 57 percent said they plan to increase the number of contract professionals on staff, down 10 percentage points from the first half of 2024.

“Today’s workers are more selective when it comes to making a career move,” said Dawn Fay, operational president of Robert Half. “Employers should have a strategic hiring plan in place and remain flexible in order to land in-demand talent and keep projects on track and workloads in check. While hiring remains a priority, employers shouldn’t lose sight of their current workforce. Skilled talent is still in high demand, so it’s crucial to prioritize retention strategies to keep your best employees on board.”

A large amount (77 percent) of healthcare and life sciences employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for healthcare and life science employers is 26 percent. This figure decreased one percent from the previous quarter and five percent year-over-year.

The ManpowerGroup report also found that a majority (75 percent) of industrials and materials employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for industrials and materials employers is 26 percent. This figure increased two percent from the previous quarter and is down one percent when compared to the same period last year.

Seventy-six percent of IT employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for IT employers is 35 percent. This figure increased six percent from the previous quarter but decreased four percent when compared to the same period last year.

A majority (76 percent) of transport, logistics and automotive employers report difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. The global NEO for transport, logistics and automotive employers is 26 percent. This figure increased five percent from the previous quarter and is down two percent year-over-year.

Related: Hiring Confidence Slows as Employers Steer Economic Headwinds

Contributed by Scott A. Scanlon, Editor-in-Chief and Dale M. Zupsansky, Executive Editor  – Hunt Scanlon Media