October Job Gains Stand at Only 12,000 Ahead of Election

November 1, 2024 – Employment rose by 12,000 in October as the U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged 4.1 percent, according to the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. The number of unemployed persons was 7.0 million in October. Employment continued to trend up in healthcare and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (13.8 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month. Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers edged up to 1.8 million in October. The number of people on temporary layoff changed little at 846,000. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million in October. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier.

In October, the long-term unemployed accounted for 22.9 percent of all unemployed people. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, changed little in October. These measures have shown little change over the year. The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.7 million, was essentially unchanged in October. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the four weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.

“This is what a soft landing looks like in the month of a hurricane,” said Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan. “The goal has been to get inflation down, and the economy delivered it with one-tenth or one-hundredth of the pain that most expected.”

“The demand for workers has weakened,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. “It’s more difficult for new workers to find employment.” Some economists have speculated that the uncertain outcome of the election could be holding employers back from expanding.

“I don’t think it’s a major factor in most of the economy, but obviously there are sectors that are highly, highly political where investors are playing wait and see and where their dollars will move based on the outcome of the election, such as green energy and oil,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at the jobs site ZipRecruiter.

Where Job Growth Occurred

• Healthcare added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 58,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in ambulatory healthcare services (+36,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).

Related: More Than Half of U.S. Companies Anticipate Adding New Positions in the Second Half of 2024

• Employment in government continued its upward trend in October (+40,000), similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+18,000).
• Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services declined by 49,000 in October. Temporary help services employment has decreased by 577,000 since reaching a peak in March 2022.
• Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity. Employment in construction changed little in October (+8,000). The industry had added an average of 20,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 14,000 jobs.

• Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Looking Ahead

Global hiring intentions are holding steady for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of 25 percent, though outlooks remain weaker compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey. The survey, which gathered data from over 40,000 employers across 42 countries between July 1-31, reveals that while the NEO has increased by three percent from the previous quarter, it represents a five decline compared to the same period last year. This year-over-year decrease indicates that economic uncertainties continue to impact hiring plans, albeit with signs of quarter-over-quarter improvement.

“The global labor market is holding steady as we move into the fourth quarter, with relatively low unemployment and layoff activity in many countries,” said Jonas Prising, chairman and CEO of ManpowerGroup. “While the gradual quarter-over-quarter improvement shows employers are cautiously optimistic about hiring, the drop from a year ago suggests employers remain prudent in the midst of uncertainty. The continued strong outlook in the IT sector is driving demand for tech talent, especially with AI top of mind for businesses across every industry. Now is the time to prioritize retaining and attracting workers with specialized, flexible skills, and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements.”

Related: Hiring Confidence Slows as Employers Steer Economic Headwinds

Contributed by Scott A. Scanlon, Editor-in-Chief and Dale M. Zupsansky, Executive Editor  – Hunt Scanlon Media