Leadership in Uncertain Times: How Executives Adapt

October 23, 2026 – Leadership has always required navigating change, but today’s executives operate in an environment where geopolitical developments, economic uncertainty, and evolving market expectations can quickly reshape business priorities. This places renewed attention on how leaders set direction, strengthen organizational resilience and prepare their businesses for an uncertain future. According to the latest Kestria Global Leadership Barometer, geopolitical instability was the leadership challenge that intensified most over the past year, reported by 52.9 percent of respondents, ahead of economic uncertainty at 38.9 percent and competitive market pressures at 36.8 percent.

Even so, almost nine in ten respondents believe their organizations are at least as well placed to respond as they were a year ago. To explore this further, Kestria interviewed executives from different regions about how leadership is evolving in response to ongoing uncertainty.

What has changed most in the leadership landscape over the past 12 months, and how has it influenced executive decision-making? Max Nyanteh, executive director, uBumbano Operating Company, South Africa, highlights global political uncertainty as a major influence on the business environment, particularly in economically fragile markets such as South Africa.

“This uncertainty has created a need for change in executive decision-making centered around agility and taking decisive action, sometimes without all the available information, to respond to a rapidly changing environment,” said Mr. Nyanteh. “In addition, the proliferation of AI tools that have become increasingly accessible, accurate, reliable and affordable has caused seismic shifts in the approach to business. The workplace has been particularly affected, necessitating a change in how one approaches decision-making and business, not least in relation to workforce optimization while remaining mindful of socioeconomic challenges such as South Africa’s high unemployment, especially among young people.”

“Executive decision-making must now consider how best to use the most appropriate AI tools for the business to enhance efficiency and automate tasks, with the aim of reducing costs and increasing margins, while ensuring the optimal use of existing staff,” he added.”

Cecilia Manhãis, HR VP, LATAM, COPAG, Brazil, also emphasizes uncertainty, describing a shift from managing through stability to leading through constant change. “Executives are expected to make faster, more data-driven decisions while balancing business performance, AI and digital transformation, talent expectations and organizational culture,” she said. “The role of leadership has therefore become less about having all the answers and more about creating clarity, making informed decisions quickly and enabling teams to adapt. As a result, executive decision-making now places greater emphasis on scenario planning, data and technology, organizational agility and having the right talent in place to deliver strategic priorities.”

Leadership Strategy and Business Strategy

“From an HR perspective, this means that leadership strategy and business strategy are increasingly inseparable,” Ms. Manhãis explained. “Succession planning, critical capabilities, leadership development and workforce transformation are no longer simply HR topics; they are becoming core elements of executive decision-making and business resilience.”

Colette Schilling, chairwoman of the board, F. Hunziker + Co AG, Switzerland, builds on these perspectives by emphasizing the increasing pace and simultaneity of change. “Geopolitics, costs, markets, technology and societal expectations are all affecting organizations at the same time,” she explained. “Leaders can no longer wait until they have all the information. What matters is being able to act under uncertainty, set clear priorities and adjust decisions as facts and circumstances evolve.”

Leadership Challenges Intensify as Organizations Confront AI, Talent, and Economic Uncertainty

Leadership demands are becoming more complex as organizations contend with economic uncertainty, talent shortages, AI adoption, and accelerating business transformation. Kestria’s latest Global Leadership Survey finds that while organizations recognize these challenges, many continue to struggle with building the leadership capability and execution discipline needed to respond effectively. The findings underscore a growing shift toward leaders who can drive change, navigate ambiguity, and translate strategy into measurable results.

“For me, this makes collective intelligence increasingly important,” Ms. Schilling said. “Good leadership does not mean having all the answers yourself. It means involving the right people, listening to different perspectives and creating clarity from them. One thing has therefore become even more important to me: clarity matters more than a false sense of certainty.”

So how can leaders balance long-term business strategy with the need to respond quickly to ongoing uncertainty? According to Ms. Manhãis, establishing a clear long-term direction must be balanced with flexibility in how it is achieved. “From my perspective, this requires clarity, agility and strong leadership capabilities,” she said. “Leaders must focus on the priorities and outcomes that truly matter, using data and scenario planning to reassess assumptions and adjust execution when necessary.”

“Leaders closer to the business should be empowered to make decisions quickly, while senior leadership defines the guardrails, directs resources towards the highest-value opportunities and enables teams to adapt,” Ms. Manhãis continued. “From an HR perspective, organizations must be able to learn and reallocate talent as quickly as the business evolves. This requires investment in critical capabilities, succession planning, leadership development and a culture in which people are comfortable with change.”

Long-Term Strategy

Building on this approach, Mr. Nyanteh emphasizes that long-term strategy should continue to provide the framework for business decisions and a roadmap for the organization’s direction. “Leaders must regularly assess whether the strategy can withstand short-term shocks and remains the right path in an uncertain environment,” he stressed. “Medium-term checkpoints can confirm whether the business remains on course or whether a short- to medium-term correction is warranted.”

Ms. Schilling develops this theme by cautioning against confusing strategy with a rigid five-year plan. She explained that the long-term direction must be clear: Where do we want to go, in which markets do we want to remain relevant, and which capabilities do we need? “The path itself, however, must remain flexible,” she said. “I work with a simple principle: direction firm – execution flexible.”

“For me, future readiness means regularly assessing whether our market position, capabilities and organization remain fit for the future, and whether we are making the transition rather than merely talking about it,” Ms. Schilling continued. “It is equally important not to view the organization only from the top down. Much of the answer already exists within it; the real skill lies in making that knowledge visible, bringing it together and translating it into decisions.”

Kestria also asked what leadership capabilities have become essential for navigating today’s geopolitical, economic and market challenges? For Ms. Schilling, six qualities stand out: clarity, courage, adaptability, communication skills, empathy and the ability to execute. “Empathy does not mean avoiding conflict or trying to please everyone; it means understanding people, dynamics and resistance while remaining clear and consistent,” she said. “The ability to create alignment is also often underestimated. An organization cannot become future-ready if the board, management and wider organization differ on direction and priorities.”

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“Leadership today means orchestrating the different levels of an organization, harnessing collective intelligence, reducing complexity and providing direction,” Ms. Schilling explained. “Put simply, leaders do not need to know everything, but they do need to know what matters now.”

Highlighting the need for a broader set of capabilities, Ms. Manhãis identifies strategic adaptability, decision-making under uncertainty and the ability to translate complexity into clear priorities as particularly important. “Leaders must understand the broader geopolitical and economic context and anticipate how external changes may affect their markets, supply chains, customers and people,” she noted. “They must also make data-driven decisions while recognizing that complete information will not always be available.”

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“Emotional intelligence and stakeholder management are equally important,” Ms. Manhãis added. “In times of uncertainty, people look to leaders for direction, transparency, trust and confidence. Leaders must communicate difficult messages while maintaining engagement and alignment. From an HR perspective, our role is to build these capabilities systematically and connect leadership development directly to the organization’s future strategy.”

Taking a concise view, Mr. Nyanteh identifies a resilient mindset and a willingness to change as essential. “Although current conditions present significant challenges, leaders who identify opportunities in setbacks or adverse circumstances will ultimately position their businesses for future success,” he said.

Effective leadership in uncertain times depends on combining clear strategic direction with flexibility, resilience and the ability to mobilize collective expertise, the report concluded. The Kestria Global Leadership Barometer 2026 shows that organizations face intensifying geopolitical and economic pressures while remaining broadly confident in their ability to respond. “Regular strategic reassessment, data-informed decisions, empowered teams and sustained leadership development strengthen adaptability and organizational resilience,” the report said. “By aligning long-term priorities with decisive action, businesses can navigate disruption without losing sight of future growth.”

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Contributed by Scott A. Scanlon, Editor-in-Chief and Dale M. Zupsansky, Executive Editor  – Hunt Scanlon Media