Global Hiring Expectations Down for Q3

July 11, 2023 – While temperatures in many countries are heating up, global hiring plans are cooling off heading into summer, according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey of nearly 39,000 employers in 41 countries. The net employment outlook is negative four percent lower than this time last year suggesting that economic headwinds are starting to impact employers’ hiring expectations.

“This data suggests employers are planning more measured hiring for the quarter ahead as they navigate a range of local and macro level challenges from supply constraints to uneven consumer confidence and rising inflation,” said Jonas Prising, chairman and CEO. “That said, attracting and retaining business critical talent remains a priority, and our survey respondents around the world continue to be focused on hiring for in-demand roles.”

For Q3 the most optimistic hiring outlooks were reported by organizations in Costa Rica (+43 percent), the Netherlands (+39 percent), and Peru (+38 percent). Employers in Argentina (+six percent), Slovakia (+10 percent), Austria (+11 percent), and Italy (+11 percent) report the least optimistic outlooks. Among the world’s largest economies, respondents in the U.S. (+35 percent), the U.K. (+29 percent), Germany (+28 percent), and France (+21 percent) all planned to hire in the third quarter.

Year-over-year, employers in 26 countries said they plan to hire fewer workers, with the net employment outlook declining negative four percentage points. The biggest year-over-year declines were reported in Brazil (-19 percent), India (-15 percent), Argentina (-14 percent), Finland (-14 percent), and Ireland (-14 percent).

Global Hiring Plans by Region

Employers remained the most optimistic in North America for the third quarter of 2023 (+35 percent). Both the U.S. and Canada expected hiring to be weaker compared to their forecast year-over-year, with both countries’ net employment outlook decreasing negative three percent. Employers across Puerto Rico (+35 percent), the U.S. (+35 percent), and Canada (+34 percent) reported increases in their outlooks compared to last quarter at + nine, + five, and + eight percentage points, respectively.

The ManpowerGroup report found that employers across Asia-Pacific anticipated increasing headcount (+31 percent), further improving when compared to the previous quarter (+four percent) but slightly weakening year-over-year (-one percent). Australia (+37 percent), India (+36 percent), and China (+35 percent) report the strongest outlooks. The most cautious outlooks were reported by employers in Japan (+14 percent) and Taiwan (+15 percent). China reported the strongest outlook globally for energy and utilities (61 percent) while Singapore remained the leader in financials and real estate (50 percent). When it comes to digital roles, Australia led both regionally and globally (+61 percent).

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Regional outlook in Central and South America stood at +29 percent, increasing since last quarter by +two percent. Employers in Costa Rica led globally and regionally (+43 percent), followed by Peru (+38 percent), and Mexico (+36 percent). The weakest labor market was seen by employers in Argentina (+six percent). This region has the strongest hiring intentions globally for the following sectors: healthcare and life sciences (Mexico, 51 percent); communication services (Costa Rica, 60 percent); and consumer goods and services (Costa Rica, 49 percent).

Unemployment Rate Drops Slightly as Fears of a Recession Continue to Loom
Employment rose by 209,000 in June as the U.S. unemployment rate dropped slightly to 3.6 percent, according to the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report. The number of unemployed persons was 6 million in June. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. “Today’s employment report offered additional evidence that the labor market is slowly coming into better balance as job growth slows and labor supply steadily expands,” Wells Fargo senior economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese wrote in a note on Friday. “That said, job growth of +200K is still quite strong even if it is directionally slower than the scorching pace seen over the past year.”

Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) employers reported a steady outlook for the third quarter (+20 percent), with a moderate increase (+two percent) since last quarter, but still the weakest globally. Outlooks varied across the region with employers optimistic in the Netherlands (+39 percent), South Africa (+34 percent), and the U.K. (+29 percent). ManpowerGroup found the weakest outlooks in Slovakia (+10 percent), Italy (+11 percent), and Austria (+11 percent). France and Italy reported a weaker outlook compared to the second quarter, both declining -five percent.

How Today’s Trends are Impacting Jobs

Within consumer goods and services, the ManpowerGroup report found that the demand for talent outpaced supply where 77 percent of organizations reported difficulty finding the talent they need. Despite the talent shortage, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +25 percent, strengthening +six percent since last quarter but weakening -five percent when compared to this time last year.

In the energy and utilities sector, supply for talent is surpassed by demand where 79 percent of organizations reported difficulty finding the talent they need. Notwithstanding the talent scarcity, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +34 percent, improving +eight percentage points when compared to the previous quarter.

Demand for talent within the financial services and real estate sectors exceeded supply where 73 percent of organizations reported difficulty finding the talent they need. Despite the talent shortage, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +31 percent, remaining relatively stable when compared to the previous quarter yet weakening since this time last year, respectively changing +two and -seven percentage points.

Related: CEOs Anticipate a Possible Recession

Within the communications sector, available talent was eclipsed by demand where 79 percent of organizations reported difficulty finding the talent they need. Regardless of the talent scarcity, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +22 percent, weakening when compared to the previous quarter and the same time last year by -eight percent and -nine percent, respectively.

Within the industrial and materials sectors, the ManpowerGroup report found that the demand for talent outweighed supply where 77 percent of organizations reported difficulty finding the talent they need. Even with the lack of available talent, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +28 percent, strengthening when compared to the previous quarter yet weakening year-over-year by +seven and -two percentage points, respectively.

Available talent within the transport, logistics and automotive industries is outpaced by demand where 76 percent of organizations report difficulty finding the talent they need. Undeterred by the talent scarcity, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +28 percent, improving since the previous quarter but weakening year-over-year by +two and -five percentage points, respectively.

The ManpowerGroup report found that within the IT sector, demand for talent surpassed supply where 78 percent of organizations report difficulty finding the talent they need. Despite the ongoing talent crunch, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +39 percent, strengthening when compared to the previous quarter but weakening since this same time last year by +five and -seven percentage points, respectively.

Lastly, within the healthcare and life sciences sectors, supply was exceeded by demand where 78 percent of organizations reported difficulty finding the talent they need. Persisting despite the challenges of talent shortage, employers globally anticipated a net employment outlook of +27 percent, improving +two percent since last quarter but weakening by -three percent when compared to this time last year.

“This recovery is unlike any we have ever seen,” the ManpowerGroup report said. “Humans have always adapted to new technologies and better ways of doing things. As the saying goes, history repeats itself. And the pandemic taught us again that we can make extraordinary progress if we come together – it is the combination of innovation, technology, and human ingenuity that will help us overcome the biggest challenges.”

Related: The Prospect of a Recession Remains Murky

Contributed by Scott A. Scanlon, Editor-in-Chief; Dale M. Zupsansky, Managing Editor; and Stephen Sawicki, Managing Editor – Hunt Scanlon Media